Wednesday, September 17, 2008

My preview and thoughts for CU's game against WVU...

As far as I can come up with this game is the biggest CU game since Coach Hawkins' debut on 9/2/06. This prompted me to create a list of the biggest games in recent memory for CU football.

My thinking/reasoning/rationale are all based on the rankings, buildup, hype, TV audience, opponent, and implications for rest of season - heading into the game - not the results of the game. I therefore excluded the win last season against OU and a few others. I don't believe a 'big game' as I am defining it can exist when you don't have realistic expectations to win the game heading into it.

So here is my list based on this criteria of the biggest CU games since winning the Big 12 during the 2001-2002 season (I've excluded post-season games from my list):

1. Nov 25th 2005. Nebraska 30 - Colorado 3. A very painful day to be a CU fan, and especially a CU student. The Buffs played the day after Thanksgiving in front of the whole country for the Big 12 North title outright. Folsom field was packed to the brim on a cold autumn morning. The atmosphere was unlike any game I've ever seen at Folsom. Only true CU students (most from Colorado) stuck around for the holiday and were in attendence. The student section was condensed and we were practically sitting on top of each other. But there was a buzz throughout the stadium that day that I've never seen duplicated. To me these conditions/outcome led to the understandable (although completely unacceptable) student-seciton blowup at the end of the blowout. The outcome was as bad and as painful as any CU game in recent memory.There have been few CU games in the past decade with more on the line.

A few side-notes: 1. The fanfare, partying and celebrating were much crazier in Boulder and at Folsom for the two games vs CSU ('04 and '05), the 'Blackout' game vs FSU ('07), and the I'm sure the OU upset ('07) as well as a number of other games. The 'what's at stake factor' was never higher in my time at Folsom than the 11/25/05. 2. Even though CU would later win the Big 12 north thanks to an Iowa St loss the result against Nebraska was rock bottom for the CU program. There was literally no where else to go. If we had noticed this at the time it might have helped to explain the 70-3 loss to Texas a few weeks later and subsequently Gary Barnett's firing.

2. 10/25/03 (1) Oklahoma 34 - Colorado 20. It is not every day a #1 ranked team plays against your school while you're enrolled. It doesn't happy very often period. When your team was ranked in the top 10 to begin the previous season, and only 20 months removed from a Big 12 title the expecatations were high for this game to say the least. Despite a few unexpected losses earlier in the season CU fans thought the Buffs had a chance to upset OU and turn the season around. We hung with the Sooners for 3 1/2 quarters and exposed some weaknesses that would come back to haunt OU in the BCS Title game a few months later. In the end we were out-matched. The hype building up to that game was big. A night-time game on national TV only helped the experience before the game. CU may not play a #1 ranked team in the next 10 seasons, it was special for anyone who was there.

3. 9/2/2006 Montana St 19 - Colorado 10. The first game in the Coach Hawkins era. There wasn't a CU fan who wasn't excited for the 2006 season to begin. Casual college football fans across the country also wanted to check out Coach Hawk's debut. Needless to say the era and the season did not start the way the Buffs wanted it to.

4. 11/2/02 (2) Oklahoma 27 - (13) Colorado 11. I didn't go to Colorado when this game took place so I can't comment on the atmosphere or buildup. This was the last regular season game that Colorado played when both the Buffs and their opponent were ranked in the Top 15. Something Coach Hawk and co. hope are regularities in the coming years. A win against WVU would be a big step toward that goal.

5. 8/31/02 CSU 19- (7) Colorado 14. Again before my time at CU. Colorado was ranked in the top 10, and coming off a Big 12 title and a Fiesta Bowl appearance. The expectations haven't been higher for a CU team since the early 90s. Coach Barnett always had trouble playing against CSU even when his squads were supremely talented. Luckily Coach Hawk knows he is judged by 1. Big 12 North Titles 2. Wins against CSU/Nebraska 3. Big 12 titles 4. National Championships 5. Top 25 wins. 6. Big 12 wins. I don't know that Coach Barnett ever fully understood how important wins against CU's rivals are for fans, in-state recruiting and overall team morale.

Rounding out the Top 10:
6. 9/4/04 - Colorado 27 - CSU 24
Coming off a brutal offseason, CU was able to squeak out a win in the best game I've ever seen at Folsom.
7. 9/15/07 - FSU 16 - Colorado 6
The First 'blackout' really set the tone for the way coach Hawk and co. want to get students and fans involved at CU. A big game on ESPN against a supremely talent east-coast team, very similar to this WVU game.
8. 11/8/03 - Colorado 22 - (22) Mizzou 16
See below.
9. 9/3/05 - Colorado 31 - CSU 28
Another must-win that set the tone for a up-and-down seaosn.
10. 9/6/03 - (24) Colorado 16 - UCLA 14
A big win on national TV when expecatations were still very high for the Buffs.

Notice one thing about all of the games in my Top 5. They are all Colorado losses. I didn't do this on purpose, but noticed it after I had put the list together. The Buffs have had a very tough time winning big games over the past decade. Except for the upset of OU last season, CU has not beat a Top 25 team in Folsom since Nov. 8 2003. That day the Buffs beat 22nd ranked Mizzou 22-16. That game was was the last time CU fans were able to say "we should probably win this one" when heading into a game against a Top 25 team, and then go out and back it up with a win.

The win against OU was the biggest win for the program since the Big 12 title game win against Texas in 2002. But you can't honestly say CU fans, players and coaches expected to win or even have thought they had a realistic shot heading into the game aginst the Sooners.

I'm not totally sure why Colorado has struggled in big games. I've given one thought on Coach Barnett's teams above. You could never tell how Coach Barnett's squads were going to play, which team was going to show up. Some of the biggest wins and biggest upsets in CU history came during his tenure, but some of the worst losses also came in big games during Barnett's stay.

Coach Hawkins' teams have simply been over-match physically over the past two seasons. This trend of losing in big games is something Coach Hawkins is working to change. His teams will be more balanced when they start competing in big games on a regular basis. Coach Hawks' teams will 'bring it' in the games that matter. Atleast that's what he preacehs and what the fans are hoping, but have yet to be assured of. The West Virginia game is a great place to start. For the first time since in the Coach Hawkins era CU fans can honestly say 'we have a legitimate shot to beat a Top 25 team' as they enter Folsom on Thursday.

In all reality WVU is probably a Top 15 or Top 10 team in terms of experience and talent. So in order for the Buffs to avoid another dissappointment in a big game a few things have to happen.

1. The big-time recruits from the past few cycles need to have an impact on the game. This is why they came to CU. They wanted to play in big-time games. They wanted to play the best teams in the country. When the blue-chip recruits on WVU, Pat White and Noel Devine, played in their first games on ESPN I can remember them electrifying the crowd and they were immediatley thrown on Sportscenter's Top 10 on a permanent basis. I don't think Darrell Scott and co. need to have that kind of impact, but they need to affect the outcome of the game. I don't throw Josh Smith or Rodney Stewart into this category because they were not 'prized recruits' coming out of high school. In Josh's case, the CU coaches knew he could play, but the services and 'experts' looked past him. This might be a reason he is so motivated and has become the playmaker for CU this season and for the near future. As for the offense as a whole, this is the most 'skill' CU has had at the 'skill positions' since the 2003 season.

The young offensive line duo of Ryan Miller and Max Tuioti-Mariner need to handle WVU's funky defense and speed of the game, while giving the 'skill players' space to operate.

On defense Shaun Mohler and any other freshman/newcomers that see the field must adjust to the speed of the game quickly and contain Pat White and Noel Devine.

2. Leading to my next thought. The CU defense must contain the duo of Devine and White. this sounds pretty obvious to the casual fan, but these two will probably get their 20 and 30 yard runs. If a defense can keep the 30+ yard runs and long scoring runs below one or two for the game WVU can be beaten.

3. Along those same lines the CU defense as a whole must atleast allow the offense to keep pace with WVU's offense. Meaning if WVU jumps out to a 21-0 lead, the game is all but over. CU's offense is just not explosive enough to make up 21 points, especially if the defense has difficulty stopping WVU.

4. CU's offense must keep the mistakes to a minimum, but more importantly must have the ability to stay on the field for long stretches of time. If the offense can punish the WVU defense and keep the dynamic duo off the field it will pay dividends in the 3rd and 4th quarters.

5. Finally, this game is one that Coach Hawk and co. have been pointing to all offseason and probably back to sometime last season. This stretch of games against Top 25-quality teams may ultimately shape the way Coach Hawk is viewed over the next few years. If we compete in and win one or two games I think he will be graded as 'on track, but just wait until next year'. If we are simply over-matched, out-played and out-coached more often than not during the stretch, CU fans (including myself) will be more skeptical than anytime over the past two seasons. The WVU game is the beginning of this important stretch. It is tme for Coach Hawk to show his teams can and will compete on the national level. We can no longer just hope to win these games as upsets. If Hawk truly wants to put his stamp on this program he will win games like tonight's and will build a reputation as a coach that has his team ready to play in big-time games. Something that has been lacking in recent CU football.

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